If he becomes president of the United States, Donald Trump will be as dangerous to the world as terrorism is, and his hostile attitude toward free trade will thrust America into a trade war with China, according to a latest report on the global risk assessment.
The Economist Intelligence Unit, the research and analysis division of “The Economist” group, however, does not expect the Republican presidential frontrunner to defeat most likely Democratic contender Hillary Clinton.
But in case Trump triumphs, his avowed policies would fan the flames of terrorism in the Middle Eastern region and beyond, trigger a trade war with China and scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the U.S. and 11 states signed in February.
Of the 10 top risks facing the world, Trump’s ascendency to power received a rating of 12 on a scale of one to 25, same as “the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy,” and posing even more risk than a UK vote to leave the EU would pose to the world economy.
Trump, who has no political experience, has taken an “exceptionally right-wing stance” on the Middle East and terrorism, going to the extent of invading Syria to wipe out the Islamic State, or Daesh, and killing families of terrorists. He has also called for banning Muslims from entering the United States.
“His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond,” the EIU said.
The billionaire real-estate tycoon has been extra-ordinarily belligerent towards free trade and has also betrayed an extreme hatred towards China, which he has repeatedly called a “currency manipulator”.
“In the event of Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war,” the report says.
Beijing a had until recently kept mum over Trump’s spitting of venom against the mainland which includes imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports and relocating things like iPhone production to the United States.
But that changed last week when China’s state-owned Global Times newspaper excoriated Trump for being “abusively racist and extremist” whose job, it claimed, was “basically to act as a clown to attract more voters’ attention to the GOP” before his un-anticipated rise as the Republican front-runner.
“The rise of a racist in the US political arena worries the whole world,” the paper writes in its Feb. 14 editorial. “Usually, the tempo of the evolution of US politics can be predicted, while Trump’s ascent indicates all possibilities and unpredictability”.
While Trumps has drawn criticism from far and wide, his own party’s establishment is dumbfounded over his strides toward clinching the nomination and is using all armors in its weaponry to put a break to his seemingly “unstoppable” strides. That could induce Trump to run as an independent candidate, eroding GOP’s chances of denying the Democrats their third win straight win.
The EIU assessment has noted that the “innate hostility” within the Republican hierarchy towards Trump, “will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress – albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.
China’ seems to agree to the EIU assessment.
“Even if Trump is simply a false alarm, the impact has already left a dent,” the Global Times editorial said. “The US faces the prospects of an institutional failure, which might be triggered by a growing mass of real-life problems.”
The EIU top ten risks and their ratings are:
a) China experiences a hard landing. Score = 20
b) Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria trigger start of new “cold war.” Score = 16
c) Currency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis. Score = 16
d) Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture. Score = 15
e) “Grexit” is followed by a euro zone break-up. Score = 15
f) Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. Score = 12
g) The rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizes the global economy. Score = 12
h) The UK votes to leave the EU. Score = 8
i) Chinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea. Score = 8
j) A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock. Score = 4
