Democratic White House hopeful Hillary Clinton, who again outsmarted Donald Trump in the last of presidential debates, maintains a double-digit lead – 45-33 percent- over her Republican rival, a survey of likely Virginian voters revealed Friday.
Wason Center for Public Policy found in its latest weekly survey that Clinton has steadily increased her vote share as the campaign progressed, from 39 percent on September 26, to 45 percent now.
Trump’s vote share has ranged from 29 percent to 35 percent over the same period, seeming to fluctuate depending upon campaign events and news.
According to the Center, the survey was conducted Oct. 16-19 among 834 likely Virginia voters, with an overall margin of error of +/- 3.9 % at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.
“While Trump appears to have recovered a little of the support he lost after the release of the ‘Access Hollywood’ tape, his reach continues to be no higher than the mid-30s,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the Wason Center. “That ceiling is far too low to win, especially as Clinton’s share continues to rise.”
Here are some of the details as relased by the Center:
The party loyalty gap persists, as Clinton continues to draw more support from Democrats (88 percent) than Trump does from Republicans (72 percent). Independents appear to be slowly edging toward Clinton, with 44 percent saying they would vote for her if the election were held today, compared with 21 percent in late September.
That swing has come mostly at the expense of Libertarian Gary Johnson, who had the support of 32 percent of Independents in September, compared to 14 percent now.
Regionally, Northern Virginia continues to drive Clinton’s lead, with 57 percent of voters there saying they would vote for Clinton and only 21 percent saying they would vote for Trump. While the Clinton vote continues to grow in Northern Virginia, her lead in Hampton Roads and the Richmond region, while still solid, has returned to its pre-‘Access Hollywood’ margins. For Trump, rural and Appalachian South-Southwest Virginia continues to be his stronghold, where he has a 51-30 percent lead over Clinton.
Clinton continues to enjoy a massive advantage over Trump among women, nearly doubling his vote share, 47-25 percent. Men are divided, 42 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump. Clinton nearly doubles Trump among Millennials, 45-24 percent.
She also leads among voters 35 and older, 44-36 percent. Trump still leads among all white voters, 44-32 percent, and especially white men, 52-32 percent. Clinton trails among white women, 32-37 percent. Among white college-educated voters Clinton leads, 41-33 percent. Clinton’s already overwhelming lead among African-American voters grows slightly in this survey to 81-3 percent. Finally, Clinton and Trump have traded the lead among military households, with Trump now leading Clinton, 45-32.
“Clinton’s continued rise in Northern Virginia tells the larger story of political change in Virginia,” said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center. “Bluer and bluer voters in suburban Washington, and their like in Richmond and Hampton Roads, far outweigh rural voters’ preference for Trump.”
