What will the next US president face as she, or he, takes over as the leader of the most powerful nation in the world? What are the issues that will draw the world’s attention once the campaign is over? What happens when the dust and the shouting of the campaign fade away?
There’s no way to predict future events, no matter who is elected. But some early initiatives seem likely – both as a follow-up to the heated rhetoric of the campaign, and because of the urgent nature of the problems.
As a major element of his critique of American foreign policy in recent months Donald Trump has raised eyebrows at home and abroad by saying that, if elected, he would renegotiate relationships with America’s allies and force them to take on more of the costs of international partnerships. He has charged that the US has lost respect around the world, and is losing the fight against international terrorism. Hillary Clinton’s response – and that of scores of foreign policy experts – has been to restate a conviction that long-established alliances and working partnerships are to be valued and maintained in the face of an uncertain and potentially hostile world. She has pledged to join with others in the fight against terrorism, a battle, she says, that is far from over.
Another of Trump’s oft-stated campaign pledges has been that he would nullify unfavorable trade agreements, re-open negotiations with America’s trading partners, and reverse the outward flow of capital and jobs in defense of US workers. Hillary Clinton’s position on free trade remains to be spelled out in detail, but she seems more likely to honor existing agreements while taking a new look at their economic consequences and at proposals for new trade pacts that could have an adverse impact on the United States.
Once in office, the new administration will reach out to allies, assess the intentions of real and potential adversaries, and take appropriate actions. In specific terms, some particularly difficult foreign policy problems will need urgent attention. At this writing, some issues are more urgent than others.
Russia and Europe
Relations between Washington and Russian President Vladimir Putin have continued to deteriorate over the past couple of years, as Russian military actions and internet hacking campaigns have made meaningful discussions almost impossible. Driven by slow economic decline worsened by dropping oil prices and subsequent discontent among the country’s consumers, Putin has worked to silence Russian grumbling by raising the specter of external threats. Seeking to drive up nationalist sentiment, he has ordered a crackdown on potential breakaway provinces and anti-Russian governments in nearby Georgia and Ukraine. Moscow has taken military action in its annexation of Crimea, and in its bombing of rebel forces in Syria. To ensure favorable domestic coverage Putin’s government has cracked down on media, causing futile protests at home and uneasiness in the West.
Europeans have watched the Kremlin’s moves with growing nervousness – and, because of Donald Trump’s comments questioning the value of NATO, have wondered if they could continue to count on US military and political support in a crisis. Early in the next administration, the new President will have to address Russia’s long-term intentions while shoring up US relations with NATO allies.
China and East Asia
President Obama’s stated goal to pivot American attention from Afghanistan and the Middle East to China will also require early attention. In recent years, China has become more assertive in making territorial and political claims within its East Asian sphere of influence, especially in the South China Sea. As with Vladimir Putin in Russia, Chinese President Xi Jinping has tightened his government’s grip on internal dissidents while overseeing efforts to solidify his control over all aspects of life in China. These moves have heightened anxiety among traditional US allies in the East Asian region, and have also raised questions about the nature and scope of Washington’s bilateral relations with Beijing. While the US and China have enjoyed mutually beneficial trade relationships in recent years, those ties have come under increasing scrutiny on both sides, with growing skepticism in the United States as to the long-term effects on America’s economy and its workforce.
In addition, two potential threats to US ties to the East Asian region must be dealt with by the new US president.
First, North Korea – a longtime client state of China – has become increasingly bellicose in its pronouncements and actions, testing nuclear weapons and missile systems and threatening attacks against the United States. James R. Clapper, Jr., US Director of National Intelligence, said recently, “I think the notion of getting the North Koreans to denuclearize is probably a lost cause.” Because of the potential for a catastrophic nuclear incident and the danger posed to neighboring countries, the US is likely to step up its efforts to maintain regional stability – including installation of a defensive missile system in South Korea in response to threats from North Korea.
Second, America’s longtime ally – the Philippines – is creating new uncertainty about its diplomatic and political intentions. The new President, Rodrigo Duterte, has reached out to China to form a new partnership, and recently told reporters that Russia’s President Putin is his “favorite hero.” President Duterte has raised doubts about his government’s future ties with the United States, saying during a visit to Tokyo that he wants all foreign troops – meaning American forces – to leave the Philippines, perhaps within two years. All this has raised alarms in Washington, which has long counted on Philippine support for its policies in East Asia and recently signed a defense pact with Manila for new, permanent, US military bases. According to the AP, President Duterte said “I don’t need the arms,” and speaking of American forces, he said, “I want them out.” Ironing out relations with its longtime ally in the South China Sea will be a high priority for the new US president.
Middle East – Syria, Iraq, and ISIS
Few problems facing the next administration will be as complex as the roiling, murderous battle fronts in Syria and Iraq. The continuing civil war in Syria is compounded by the Assad regime’s ties with Russia, and Moscow’s on-again, off-again participation in bombing campaigns against rebels in Aleppo and other cities. Barring decisive military action there is no likelihood of an early cessation of hostilities in Syria, a country where hundreds of thousands of people have been killed or wounded and millions have fled across borders since the fighting began. The Obama administration has been criticized in the US and the region for not playing a more decisive role in quelling the warfare and aiding its victims – and this will push Syria to the top of the next US president’s foreign policy agenda.
Closely related is the continuing war in Iraq, a conflict now in its 14th year, and one in which the terrorist group ISIS plays a major role. Iraqi forces in cooperation with US military commanders continue efforts to oust ISIS from its major strongholds in urban centers, and the stability of the new Iraqi government is likely to depend on the outcome. International terrorism has deep roots in the conflict, and ISIS-inspired attacks outside the region have driven home the need to mount a concerted, multi-national effort against it.
In addition to these shooting wars, the US will have to review and redefine its role in conflicts in Libya, Yemen and Somalia; in continuing struggles against the Taliban in Afghanistan; in diplomatic dealings over nuclear weapons with Iran; and in relations with long-time allies including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and countries in the Persian Gulf.
There is little doubt that America will continue to maintain strong ties with Israel, despite the difficult relationship of the past few years between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The long and complicated list of foreign policy issues facing the next US president will be daunting, ranging from nuclear proliferation to mosquitoes and the spread of the Zika virus. If, as appears increasingly likely, Hillary Clinton is sworn in as President in January, as a former Secretary of State she will carry a well-known profile, extensive first-hand knowledge of world leaders and foreign affairs, and a comprehensive set of policy preferences into the international arena.
