As election fever grips the Commonwealth, also known as “Mother of presidents,” reading into the latest polls amidst a tightening contest could be a double-edged prospect – some findings might resonate with voters while others might sound at odds with what voters see in their neighborhood, city or county.
Days ahead of the November 8 election – pitching Democratic Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump in a close White House race – polls could vary from day to day, and even from hour to hour.
This week three polls – that also cover the period when news broke out of another FBI probe into a Clinton aide’s computer over private email account – suggest both contrasting and continuing trends among Virginian voters.
The tightening national political scenario between Clinton and Trump also means politicians including Virginian Tim Kaine, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, could not have higher stakes in public engagement ahead of November 8 vote. Virginia is considered to be the sixth most important battleground arena according to FiveThirtyEight 2016 election forecast.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll on Tuesday said Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump by a margin of six points a week before November 8 election, a new poll said Tuesday.
Conducted from Thursday through Sunday, the poll found no immediate drop in Clinton’s support following the FBI decision last week to look into newly discovered email on her aide’s computer.
The Democratic candidate draws her support from diverse population communities and voters around Washington and Clinton led Republican rival Trump, 48 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters statewide.
Then a poll by the Hampton University Center for Public Policy said Donald Trump led Hillary Clinton among Virginia voters by 44 percent to 41 percent .
Significantly, the poll found that 15 percent of respondents among voters were undecided.
The gap between Clinton and Trump falls within the 4.57 percent margin of error uner the poll that included 802 registered voters reached from Oct. 26 to 30.
Then a Winthrop University poll revealed that 44 percent of those surveyed said they were leaning toward voting for the former Secretary of State.
Real estate tycoon Trump had support of 39% of the likely voters.
Winthrop Poll Director, Dr. Scott Huffmon, notes, “With several negative ‘October surprises’ coming out and affecting both candidates, we have seen a tightening of the race in national polls. However, while Clinton’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from its highest point, she still leads Donald Trump in the Commonwealth.”
The poll shows a significant divide between partisans in Virginia, the university said.
Huffmon says: “Deep divisions emerge between Democratic and Republican likely voters in Virginia. Huge differences in the job approval numbers for Obama and McAuliffe, the favorability ratings for Trump, Clinton, and McAuliffe, and attitudes about Muslim immigration reveal a gulf between partisan attitudes and starkly different views of the nation and state.”
The poll surveyed 712 likely voters in Virginia by landline and cell phones between October 23 and October 30, 2016 and results have a margin of error of approximately +/- 3.6% at the 95% confidence level.
A look at the three polls clearly indicates that a lot of voters continue to largely pursue partisan lines. Secondly, Clinton appears to be staying ahead of Trump, notwithstanding the new development regarding email probe. Thirdly Trump has also made some significant gains as a poll a weeks ago put him in double digit deficit against Clinton. Fourthly, there are a number of undecided and unaffiliated voters, who could tip the balance come November 8.
