Gwadar Seaport Photo Credit: Umargondal via Wikimedia Commons
Perhaps nowhere the maxim that nothing is constant in international politics rings as loudly as in Russia’s outreach to Pakistan that has left India stunned and aghast.
Vladimir Putin’s Moscow is fast moving towards a rapprochement with its Cold War era foe Pakistan, voicing support for China Pakistan Economic Corridor that is considered to be a game-changer not only for South Asia but for Central Asia and the Gulf regions.
Putin has also expressed the desire to link Eurasian Economic Union with China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – in an effort to extend its participation, increase influence and realize the Russian dream of access to warm waters of Arabian sea.
According to several South Asian analysts, India has started feeling the heat of the growing cooperation between Russia and Pakistan as the new developments are being taken as nothing less than a threat to the 70-year-old Russo-Indian friendship.
Moscow’s warming up to Pakistan takes place in the face of changing geopolitics that has led to deterioration of diplomatic and political ties between Russia and India.
Quite significantly, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nafees Zakaria announced on Thursday, Pakistan, China and Russia will hold talks in Moscow on December 27 to discuss regional peace and stability, including situation in Afghanistan.
But increasing Moscow-New Delhi discordance was on full display when Russia refused to support India’s bid to isolate Pakistan, taking a major step away from its unconditional friendship with India
In another unmistakable sign, Moscow held its first-ever joint military drills this year with Pakistan as the United States and India developed closer ties.
This month, Moscow and Islamabad also held their first-ever foreign office consultations, leaving India worried that Russia is further deepening its ties with Pakistan. During those consultations in Islamabad, Russian and Pakistani officials discussed a wide variety of regional issues and pointed out some areas of mutual interest, including economic cooperation.
“Pakistani and Russian officials “exchanged views on important global and regional developments.” Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said, adding “it was also decided that the next round of consultations will be convened in Moscow in 2017.”
Last year, Russia sold four Mi-35 helicopters to Pakistan in 2015, in a clear messaging of its changing geopolitical strategies.
Recently, Alexey Dedov, the Russian Ambassador to Pakistan, declared Russia’s strong support for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, announcing that Russia wants to link the Eurasian Economic Union project with the corrdior, that through Gwadar port opens new avenues for two-way trade between China and the Gulf regions
Meanwhile, Pakistan and India continue to engage in a tense military and diplomatic standoff over Kashmir, where New Delhi’s use of pellet guns and brutal suppression of Kashmiris has also come under international spotlight.
Russia has clearly expressed its opposition to US-India ties. At the same time, Moscow views China as its most prosperous ally. On the other hand, US-Russia relations have deteriorated considerably over a spate of issues including allegations that Moscow tried to interfere in US election process through cyber intrusions
That creates an important scenario for Pakistan, which already has a close counterterrorism cooperation with the United States and despite some serious differences both countries know intimately that they need each other for Afghan security and stability.
China, meanwhile, is a traditional ally of Pakistan and is perceived in New Delhi as its major adversary. In this circumstance, Russia sees closer ties with Pakistan a way to cement ties with China, which is pursuing much larger areas of influence in ensuring vast regional connectivity routes for its future interests.
Washington has its own reasons for strengthening ties with New Delhi – one of them being putting up a counterweight to China.
Some analysts say Moscow is not abandoning India but sending mixed signals about what might happen in the future.
In the United States, President-elect Donald Trump has indicated that his administration might repair relations with Putin’s Russia.
In another recent substantial development, Russia has also signed an agreement with Pakistan for the construction of gas pipeline linking Karachi with Lahore to help this part of the world overcome energy shortage. The project will mark Moscow’s biggest investment in Pakistan since it helped the country have its large Steel Mills in Karachi four decades ago.
Islamabad this week also asked New Delhi to benefit from the promise of CPEC which passes through parts of Kashmir and concludes at Gwadar in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province.
The realization of the massive project indicates the future may already be here – and it might look even more different than it appears now as Iran and Central Asian countries also are willing to be part of the massive trade China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
