President Donald Trump’s new policy for Afghanistan war and South Asia is getting mixed reactions from all over the world. Without mincing words Trump declared that Taliban insurgency is only possible because of Pakistan, while making no specific mention of Russian, Iranian and Indian interference.
Russia, Iran and China are reportedly helping the Taliban to tackle the ISIS threat while Indian role in stoking animosity with Pakistan through support of Baloch insurgents from across the Afghan border is well known.
Undoubtedly, the United States has devoted a lot of money and military effort to deal with threats on the Afghan soil since 9/11 terror attacks, and the sacrifices of its armed forces demand an honorable exit from the country.
Both within and outside the United States, analysts and political leaders have raised several questions about the new strategy.The most glaring question seems to be as to why Pakistan is being blamed for all the failures in Afghanistan, when a myriad other problems are well known and documented? How much will this policy affect Pakistan?
Successive U.S. administrations and the Washington-based think tanks have been divided on the question of American policy towards Pakistan. Some believe that Pakistan’s threat perception towards India is real and Pakistan would not relinquish its support for the Taliban until its security paranoia is addressed. So, if the U.S. would help settle their issue vis-à-vis India by pressuring India for peace dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir and other issues, Pakistan would come out with open support. This argument was discussed in detail by Stephen Hadley, former US National Security Advisor, in his article, co-authored by Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Associate Vice President, South Asia Program at US Institute of Peace, in New York Times and then in The Washington Post. However, the other group believes that Pakistan’s threat perception about India is exaggerated and if US would simply twist Pakistan’s arms, it would deliver. Dr. Moeed Yusuf and Ejaz Haider, a journalist and public intellectual based in Pakistan, argue – and rightly so — that it’s Pakistan who should decide about its threat perceptions – just like India had its security paranoia before 1971 when East Pakistan was part of the country. Obama and now Trump, have sided with the second point of view, indicating India’s place in the U.S. policy to contain China.
Initially, Pakistan denied the presence of the Taliban and Al-Qaida leaders’ on its soil, although the U.S. officials and the world understood that the militants crossed over into Pakistan from Afghanistan. However, it was found out that Taliban supreme leader Mullah Umar died in Pakistani hospital. Al-Qaida’s leader Osama Bin Laden was found hidden and later killed by the US elite force in Abbottabad. Just a year ago Mullah Akhter Mansur, the new Tehreek-Taliban leader was killed in a US drone attack inside Pakistan. Some Pakistanis within the security establishment – which controls Pakistan foreign and defense policies to large extent – have acknowledged that top Taliban leaders lived in Balochistan province of Pakistan. They insisted that they had leverage over the Taliban and they can make them engage in the peace talks with Afghanistan elected government. When Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif spoke at the U.S. Institute of Peace in October 2016, he said that Pakistan cannot deliver peace dialogue if the world would insist Pakistan to fight and eliminate Taliban leadership hiding in Pakistan. However, after Pakistan could only get some junior Taliban leaders to sit with Afghan government for peace process, the dialogue broke after the first meeting when the death of Mullah Omar was leaked by the Afghan Intelligence. Now, some policy makers in the US question if Pakistan cannot make Taliban to engage in constructive dialogue with Afghan government, it looks part of problem instead of part of solution.
India, meanwhile, is seen as contributing to Afghan economic development. Afghanistan’s Ambassador to India, Mr. Shaida Mohammad Abdali, recently noted that India “is the biggest regional donor to Afghanistan and fifth largest donor globally with over $3 billion in assistance. In his speech, Presdident Trump asked India to pledge more money in development of Afghanistan. President Trump also announced that the US engagement in Afghanistan would be limited to “killing terrorists” and training Afghan troops, and not nation building.
As regards US-Pakistan relations, there is a stalemate in relationship. What does U.S. praise for arch-rival India in the same breath signal to Pakistan?
Iran and Russia have stepped up their efforts to challenge United States in Afghanistan. The American and Afghan officials confess that their efforts – besides dealing with ISIS — are meant to weaken the U.S.-backed Afghan government. General John Nicholson, in charge of U.S. forces in Afghanistan confirmed that Russia is sending weapons to the Taliban. General Nicholson noted that the Russian intervention would further complicate the 16-year-old war in Afghanistan and the Russia’s relations with the United States. “We continue to get reports of this assistance,” Nicholson said, speaking to reporters alongside Defense Secretary James Mattis.
And what about the Indian role in destabilizing Pakistan? Why is there no mention of Pakistan-India standoff as there is no peace dialogue between them and India continues to kill Kashmiris with immunity. At the same time, Indian involvement in Balochistan uprising is known to the international community.
Then there are questions about the definition of victory.
Some analysts say it is not victory in Afghanistan which is important to Washington but containment of China, which is expanding its fleet and creating access to Arabian Sea and the Gulf region at the gateway of Hormuz.
After President Trump’s speech, Chinese government twice defended Pakistan position and asked the US to accept all the sacrifices by Pakistan. That shows China’s nervousness on this new policy. As of now it looks that the US Administration believes that India should have a significant role in assisting U.S. to blunt Chinese goals in the region.
At this stage the United States has not addressed the majority of different complexities of the Afghan conundrum. The only specific is Pakistan, raising questions about the fallout of further deterioration in the relations for both Washington and Islamabad.
