Virginia’s immigrant communities are vibrant, successful and have a growing political importance that may shape the outcome of November 7 gubernatorial election like never before. More than 12 percent of the state’s population comprises foreign born immigrants in the state could be a decisive factor for the close race between Democratic Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie.
A raging national debate on immigration – since President Donald Trump’s election – has made the issue central to the tight race in many ways. While Gillespie has attacked Northam as being weak on illegal immigration, the Democratic candidate has stepped up his outreach to diverse populations. He has visited mosques, spoken to gathering of immigrant communities as part of his campaign to secure their support. Gillespie also has some supporters among diverse communities. The two candidates have also run some hard-hitting ads on the issue. Democrats are also pitching the issue of health care to the center stage.
But will voters from Virginia’s diverse communities turn out in substantial numbers on November 7 to amplify their political participation?
The New York Times recently noted a lack of awareness about the election, describing in a piece how an Indian origin businessman – living in the state for almost two decades – discovered just by chance that Virginia would have a gubernatorial election this month.
That lack of enthusiasm may partly be due to the fact that this is not a presidential election season. Yet, the ongoing national debate on U.S. immigration has raised the stakes for all in the state.
African-Americans and Latinos are among large diverse communities. But Koreans, Somalis, Sudanese, Pakistanis, Indians and Vietnamese have also grown in clout in recent decades. The immigrants include large numbers of successful small and medium business owners as well as highly skilled professionals in the IT and medical professions in Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax and Springfield.
While traditionally, immigrants have been close to both the Democratic and Republican camps, some analysts point out that this year’s race and overall national scene with regard to immigration appear to have pushed a lot of immigrant voters toward Democrats.
Additionally, northern Virginia and other parts of the state present contrasting political scenarios. Republicans seem to have an upper hand in rural areas beyond major centers, while Democrats appear to have much greater support among diverse communities in northern Virginia.
The Democrats, seeking to succeed their outgoing governor Terry McAuliffe, have been investing a lot of time as they sense that immigrant voters could be critical to their prospects.
So, what actually are the numbers of voters among foreign born immigrants, and how could they shape the election results?
Adnan Bokhari, a financial executive, and the first Pakistani-American elected to the Board of Directors of the National Immigration Law Center, sees immigrants having a potentially significant impact on the tight race.
According to American Immigration Council, “one in six Virginia workers is an immigrant, while foreign-born entrepreneurs account for more than a fifth of the state’s self-employed business owners.”
The Council says in 2015, 1 million immigrants (foreign-born individuals) comprised 12.2 percent of the state’s population with top countries of origin for immigrants being El Salvador (10.6 percent of immigrants), India (8.1 percent), Korea (5.4 percent), Vietnam (5.2 percent), and Mexico (5.2 percent).
The immigrant will be more crucial in the outcome of gubernatorial election than the state assembly elections as their population is scattered over districts,
The November 7 vote in Virginia will also determine whether the voting trend mirrors the national scene with a Republican win or retains Washington metro area’s recent political mood with a Democratic victory.
Both the parties have tried to boost their candidates with star-power leaders from former President Barack Obama to Vice President Mike Pence. With the race said to be tightening in the last few days, the immigrant vote may decide the outcome of November 7 election.
