Pakistan‘s government has decided to seal selected areas of various cities from Monday night to help check the spread of the coronavirus as the number of infected people in this part of the world is feared to touch the mark of 1.2 million by end of July.
“A total of 20 cities across Pakistan have been identified as having likely increase in ratio/speed of infection which needs restrictive measures for containment.” according to National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC).
The Islamabad-based body that coordinates the national response to the virus, said the cities include- Karachi, Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Swat, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Sialkot. Gujarat, Ghotki, Larkana, Khairpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Malakand, and Mardan.
Pakistan has reported 146,863 COVID-19 cases with 2,783 deaths till the evening of June 15.
Alarmingly for the country and the Imra Khan Government, the rate of daily cases has been rising fast in the country of 207 million, a point noted by the World Health Organisation in a letter to Pakistani authorities last week.
In recent weeks, the UN and Pakistani organizations advised Prime Minister against the idea of shunning another lockdown after an initial suspension of economic and educational activities about two months ago. Reasons listed by PM Khan against another lockdown included the financial strangulation of the daily wage earners, who would be left without money to sustain families in a country with worrisome poverty levels, and inadequate health facilities.
Public healthcare specialists have held the lax social attitude toward diseases as one of the factors that have worsened the infectious disease scenario i the country,
Under the new measures, nearly 80 neighborhoods of the eastern city of Lahore are being sealed Monday night as a report of Punjab government recently feared that the number of COVID infected people had reached over 600,000 in the capital of Punjab province.
“We are going to seal these areas for at least two weeks, not letting anybody going into or out of cordoned localities,” Punjab’s Health Minister, Dr. Yasmeen Rashid told a news conference on Monday.
Some parts of Islamabad, as well as the north-western city of Peshawar, are expected to be subjected to similar measures.
Over the weekend, Pakistan’s Planning Minister Asad Umar had warned that the cases could double by the end of June to 300,000, and reach 1 million to 1.2 million by the end of July if people continue with their ‘ devil may care’ attitude.
The Imperial College London’s algorithm has drawn very a very gloomy picture of Pakistan, warning that the coronavirus pandemic in Pakistan will reach the peak on August 10, 2020, on which day around 80,000 deaths will occur.
The research is sponsored by the UK government which shows the projected deaths from coronavirus in case of a lockdown or otherwise in different countries, except the US and the UK. Imperial College website says about Pakistan that if it imposes 32 percent lockdown from February 27 to July 11, i.e. for 135 days, then August 04 will be the peak day with 13,570,000 people will be affected. The worst day for Pakistan concerning corona deaths is expected on August 10 and deaths are projected to reach 78,515 after which deaths will start witnessing decrease.
The website says January 2021 will witness the end to corona in Pakistan and on January 26, 2021, the total death toll in Pakistan from corona would be 2,132,617. It said if the lockdown was not imposed then 2,229,000 deaths will occur in Pakistan by January 26, 2021. If complete lockdown was imposed in Pakistan immediately, then the death toll may be restricted to about 10,200 by the end period.
Regionally, in India, total deaths by Jan 25, 2021, would be 14,244,379 without intervention, while with intervention it would be 13,649,520.
On the western border, Afghanistan, total deaths by Feb 19, 2021, would be 313,531 without intervention. While with intervention the figure would be 305,350.
Globally, Brazil, which has suffered a lot during the last several weeks, may have total death count by Jan 24, 2021, without intervention, to be 2,926,348 and with intervention to be 1,519,453. The figures given by the Imperial College are just a simulation and not a prediction.
