The year 2025 marks a milestone for the U.S. high school scenario as the number of graduates will peak to 3.9 million, which means colleges and universities around the country could see a larger rate of enrollments.
According to a comprehensive study by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education 2025 will see the highest number of high school graduates since data have been available.
However, high school graduates nationally will decline after from next year on after this year’s peak between 3.8 million and 3.9 million, and by 2041 the numbers will decline to about 3.4 million.
The dramatic 10.3 percent projected drop, due to demographic changes including decline in U.S. births, calls for a comprehensive approach to find solutions. “The news for colleges and the workforce is cause for concern,” WICHE President Demarée Michelau, noted while releasing the report in December 2024.
The study projects that by 2030, the pool of high school graduates will shrink by 3.1 percent. Graduates will increase in just 12 states — mostly in the South.
In the D.C. metro area, the rates will increase by 31 percent in the District of Columbia by 2041, while they will decline in several parts of the country.
“Yet even for the more populated states that will bear most of the decline, the bottom will not fall out overnight. States and institutions have time right now to build on approaches that will work in their contexts to meet current and future workforce needs. There are still plenty of potential students out there, including recent high school graduates who historically haven’t been well-served by our education systems, those who may be leaving college short of a degree, and adult learners, including those with previous college experience,” the WICHE president said.
The 2025 peak of high school graduates comes amid new challenges to the higher education system. First of all, the colleges are working to adjust to the changes taking place in the wake of the Supreme Court’s 2023 ban on the affirmative action, which allowed race considerations in admissions with the objective to increase the representation of under-represented groups.
Secondly, the Israeli war in Gaza, prompted a wave of protests in several colleges and universities, spotlighting it as a national political and immigration issue since the protests disrupted classes on campuses as well as signaled a huge change in the traditional American narrative on the Middle Eastern conflict.
Thirdly, colleges and students are working to adapt to the new policies that President Donald Trump has introduced including dismantling of the Education Department, cut in college grants worth billions of dollars and abolishing the Diversity, Equity, Inclusion program.
The Trump Administration has defended the actions as part of its programs aimed at cost-cutting and downsizing the government.
Before President Trump signed an executive order to shut down the federal Education Department White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt held out the assurance that the Department’s critical functions would reman intact.
“The Department of Education will be much smaller than it is today. As you know, the president’s executive order directed (Education Secretary) Linda McMahon to greatly minimize the agency.”
“So, when it comes to student loans and Pell Grants, those will still be run out of the Department of Education,” she added.
The Press Secretary stated, “The great responsibility of educating our nation’s students will return to the states. Any critical functions of the department … will remain.”
How will these policies play out for colleges, students and their families, remains to be seen. Some higher education experts say it is not just about the education-related decisions that would have implications for the future of the United States as a leading nation. Immigration will also be a factor, especially at a time when the Trump Administration reportedly plans to ban travel from countries that do not meet requirements.
Professor Dr. Akbar Ahmed, Chair of the Ibn Khaldun Islamic Studies at American University’s School of International Service, says immigration is a sensitive high-stakes issue for the United States, not only to keep enough population growth but also to maintain technological innovation.
He points out that the progress the U.S. has achieved over centuries has been built around two major pillars, the founding father’s commitment to make America a beacon of diversity and liberty and the wave after wave arrival of immigrants, from European to Asian and African countries.
“The very rich and diverse talent, especially since the start of the 20th century has been critical to U.S. progress, our universities and higher education are America’s pride. We have some big competitors. We can maintain our advantages if we encourage research and continue to attract the brightest talent from around the world,” the professor said Tuesday.
Keeping in view the demographic changes and the decline in high school graduation, the the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education proposed considerations for policymakers in December 2024, which included ways to reduce the costs of attending college: It called for investing in college affordability on a larger scale to make college possible for all students through a new state-federal partnership. The goal should be to provide the “necessary resources and certainty for students and institutions; and promise programs that provide financial aid guarantees for students.”
The Commission advocated “simplifying the college-going process which means reducing complexity for college admissions and financial aid through direct admissions programs that tell high school students who meet certain criteria that they qualify for enrollment in particular institutions and making financial aid more transparent and less confusing.
On reducing the achievement gaps among groups, the Commission underscored the importance of “addressing access and persistence gaps by ensuring that underrepresented students – who will make up a greater proportion of future graduating classes — have equitable opportunities compared to their peers.”
Views News Now staff in Washington D.C. contributed to this report.
