Image Credit: Ted Eytan/Wikimedia Commons
America’s electoral landscape will soon have Millennials as the largest vote-eligible population with a huge political potential.
Next year, Millennials (born between 1981-1996) will overtake Baby Boomers (born between 1946-64) as America’s largest living adult generation.
According to a Pew Research study, an estimated 62 million Millennials (adults ages 20 to 35 in 2016) were voting-age U.S. citizens in November 2016 when the last presidential election that gave Donald Trump victory. Baby Boomers (ages 52 to 70), based on the U.S. Census Bureau data, numbered 70 million.
That means Millennials comprised 27% of the voting-eligible population in 2016, while Boomers made up 31%, a Pew analysis says.
The Baby Boomer voting-eligible population peaked in size at 73 million in 2004 and now the Boomer electorate is declining in size while the Millennial electorate will continue to grow, mainly through immigration and naturalization.
“While the growth in the number of Millennials who are eligible to vote underscores the potential electoral clout of today’s young adults, Millennials remain far from the largest generational bloc of actual voters. It is one thing to be eligible to vote and another thing to actually cast a ballot,” a Pew analysis notes.
Historically, the young voter turnout has been low. In 2008 elections, which propelled Barack Obama to the White House, millennials 50% of eligible Millennials voted and they comprised 18% of the electorate. They made up only 14% of Americans who said they voted.
In 2016 turnout among Millennials was higher at 51% but that was significantly lower than the 61% of the electorate who voted.
However, recent demonstrations including March for Our Lives in the wake of Parkland school shooting in Florida has seen a new momentum in youth political activism.
Analysts say two issues including #MeToo and calls for gun reform following a spate of school shootings could be two new dynamics for American voters in this year’s midterm polls.
In a recent analytical report, the Los Angeles Times noted that if teen students and gun reform activists push younger voters to the polls, “it could signal a significant shift in American politics.”
“This movement has real potential to change the course of engagement for a generation,” Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, director of the Tufts Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement told the newspaper.
“If they can bring about an incredible surge in turnout, I think they’ll change the way that us adults view young people as voting blocs.”
