U.S. Capitol, Image Credit: Martin Falbisoner/Wikimedia Commons
Just weeks away, the November 6 election for Congress is shaping up to be one of the most intensely fought midterm polls as political enthusiasm has reached at its highest level in more than two decades with 72% of registered voters feeling that control of Congress to be a key factor in their verdict.
A Pew Research survey finds less than six weeks to go before the elections that views about President Donald Trump continue to be an important consideration for voters.
The Pew findings come as Democrats and Republicans race to win over voters amid raging controversies over a string of issues from U.S. engagement with the world, immigration and human rights, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and allegations of sexual misconduct against him in the era of #MeToo movement. Democrats are framing the midterm election a referendum on the White House policies while several Republicans appear to be walking a tightrope in their public discourse.
The hearing of Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh and the testimony by accuser Christine Blasey Ford on Friday presented a spectacle of highly charged political environment ahead of the midterm polls. Both stuck to their positions. An emotional Kavanaugh rejected the allegation against him and accused left wing of vicious orchestrating allegations against him. Ms. Ford told the lawmakers she has been absolutely truthful in her account of sexual assault. The unprecedented testimony has raised the stakes for both parties.
The Pew survey finds that large majorities of voters in both parties view Supreme Court appointments as a “very important” voting issue.
Overall, 76% of registered voters – including 81% who support the Democratic candidate and 72% who favor the Republican candidate – say appointments to the court will be very important to their vote this fall, the research organization reported on its website.
In addition to Supreme Court appointments, health care (75%) and the economy (74%) are among the top issues with voters.
The survey findings suggest that a 60% majority views their midterm vote as an expression of opposition to or support for President Trump, with far more saying their midterm vote will be “against” Trump (37%) than “for” him (23%).
Conducted among 1,754 adults, including 1,439 registered voters, the national survey finds that the Democrats have several advantages at this point in the campaign.
The survey findings come amidst sharp partisan politics and polarization in Washington D.C. But with the Conservative voters the weight of incumbency may ultimately turn out to be a critical factor. The challenge for GOP seems to be whether it would be able to repeat the 2016 election momentum and keep the voter base intact. The strongest selling point for Republicans is the strong economic growth reflected in job general, robust Wall Street performance and rise in business confidence.
On the other hands, Democrats, beaten at the 2016 ballot, feel reinvigorated by controversies regarding conduct of White House policies, emergence of a large number of women candidates and contestants from diverse communities, the sweeping wave of #MeToo movement, and a general sense of opposition the way things have been going on in Washington under the Trump Administration.
The survey finds that “Democrats hold a 10-percentage point lead over the Republicans in the generic ballot. About half of registered voters (52%) say if the election were today, they would vote for the Democrat in their district or lean toward the Democratic candidate; 42% say they would support the Republican or lean Republican.”
In June, the Democrats’ lead in the generic ballot was five percentage points (48% Democratic, 43% Republican), the Pew Research Center said in its report on the survey.
At the same time, voter enthusiasm is relatively high among voters in both parties. “Overall, 61% of all registered voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in past congressional elections, higher than at any point during midterms in the past two decades, including at later points in those elections,” the Pew says ahead of the high-stakes election, also being watched anxiously by the international community.
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