Bernie, Biden or Bloomberg?

As Joe Biden, widely seen as the candidate closest to Democratic establishment’s idea for moderation, tumbles in early primaries, Senator Bernie Sanders has emerged as the top contender after strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.

New polls released this week put Sanders on top of the evolving Democratic field in the several upcoming contests as Democrats hope to narrow down their choices to challenge President Trump in November 3 election.

Pete Buttigieg, a former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has come out as a surprise hopeful with a win in Iowa caucus and a close second finish behind Sanders in New Hampshire.

But there are questions about Buttigieg’s ability to sustain the winning momentum  to the finish. His campaign awaits major tests when primaries move to more diverse and much larger states with wide-ranging political dynamics at play. For example, he draws minimal support among black voters because of his past views about the community.

Senator Elizabeth Warren continues to stay in the fray after early setbacks and is expected to do better in Nevada.

Meanwhile, billionaire former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg has waded into the still open Democratic field with a barrage of advertisements promoting his eligibility. He has still not had the actual voting test.

But it’s Senator Sanders, who has gained the spotlight and is forecast to win Nevada on Feb. 22 with a poll putting him atop with 25% of voters expressing support for him.

The Vermont lawmaker – who has a vibrant base of young voters and liberal activists – is predicted win Nevada with 25% support, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal/AARP Nevada poll. Former Vice President Joe Biden is expected to recover somewhat from Iowa and New Hampshire debacles to secure around 18% while Massachusetts Senator Warren is seen to have 13% of the votes in her fluctuating campaign.

Sanders, on the other hand, appears to be the most consistent in garnering support across a wide spectrum of Democratic voters and is forecast to fare better than any other White House hopeful in March 3 Super Tuesday Texas primary. The University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll finds that Sanders currently has a prospect of winning 20% of the party’s votes.

Even as Sanders continues his ascending trend, he has also faced criticism, with some in the party seeing him as too radical as a self-described socialist. Biden has also questioned the  financial viability of the senator’s ‘Medicare for all’ plan.

Biden himself has faltered during debates and despite pitching himself as a tested and vetted eligible candidate has not been articulate in his views on Obama foreign policy missteps. At times, his political correctness sounds out of step in the Trump era while his competitors have openly discussed conflicts like Afghanistan war. Biden has also been quiet on simmering situation in Kashmir, which has seen worst forms of restrictions on human rights since India’s nationalist BJP Government unilaterally changed status of the UN-accepted disputed territory.

On the other end of the spectrum, Sanders has been clear in his views on the Kashmir and Palestinian questions.

However, Biden is expected to do well in states like South Carolina with a large African American community, whose support is considered a key plank for Democratic party. Yet, he will have to do a lot of hard work if chosen as a candidate to win over supporters currently aligned with Sanders.

Bloomberg, who is yet to assess his standing in an actual primary, has sprung to prominence in a relatively short period of time since announcing his candidacy, and has positioned himself as the candidate who can make a match of it against President Trump. He has fiercely retorted to Trump’s descriptions of him, and also cites his decades-long experience as a leader and businessman to push his election bid.

But Bloomberg has faced embarrassing criticism for his past defense of stop-and-frisk policy, which targeted African Americans and Latinos. A video of his remarks in defense of the policy has raised questions about his credibility, although Bloomberg has apologized for his past statements.

As for support among African American voters, Biden leads with three-in-ten of his supporters being black (28%), according to Pew Research. Bloomberg has 18% of black supporters while Sanders has 13% of his supporters from African American community.

But there are several other factors other than political positions on key issues that will test the mettle of presidential candidates in 2020 election. Besides showing political skills to stand up against President Trump’s unconventional style of politics, Democratic candidates also need to have the ability to have enough funds in the expensive phases of the presidential campaign. Bloomberg clearly has no worries on that score. Among other candidates, Senator Sanders stands out. Drawing mostly on support from small donors, Sanders raised $25 million in January alone, taking his total funds to $121 million.

While Biden and Bloomberg can cite their executive experience, Sanders at the moment has shown an all-round set of skills like political positions appealing to young voters and plan to waive off student loans, and has also raised funds to carry forward a presidential campaign. The Democratic field may still be open, Sanders appears to be closing in on several key marks to secure Democratic nomination in an election year that may define the party’s evolution in changing times.