Reflecting growing American demographic diversity, the U.S. electorate for the 2016 election will be the country’s most racially and ethnically diverse ever, and a series of figures and statistics cited in a Pew Research analysis indicate possible shifts ahead.
The demographic diversity is already visible in the 2016 presidential election field. Besides the majority white candidates, Marco Rubio is a Cuban-American and Ben Carson is an African-American in the Republican 2016 presidential nomination race. Nikki Haley, the South Carolina Governor, who has endorsed Marco Rubio, is an Indian American.
Interestingly, Democratic candidates competing for nomination also represent a different kind of diversity – while Hillary Clinton is the first woman with a realistic chance of becoming president of the United States, Bernie Sanders, who has surprised many political analysts with his support among young voters, has a Jewish background.
In a decisive phase of nomination campaign, the two are competing to secure Latino and African American votes in Nevada and South Carolina respectively. The two politicians are also trying to win over African Americans with pledges to fix racial issues.
On the Republican side, immigration has been a big issue in the nomination race. Some candidates including billionaire businessman Donald Trump and Ben Carson have spoken their minds about some minorities in highly controversial and unflattering terms. Trump’s repeated tirades against the Mexicans and Muslims have drawn international reaction including from Mexico, Pope Francis and the Muslim countries. Carson’s suggestion that a Muslim should not be in charge of the White House and his descriptions of Muslims in the debate on U.S. taking in more Syrian refugees have been controversial at many levels among diverse communities.
As for the American voters, the Pew Research says nearly one-in-three eligible voters on Election Day (31%) will be Hispanic, black, Asian or another racial or ethnic minority, up from 29% in 2012. The change is driven mainly due to strong growth among Hispanic eligible voters, in particular U.S.-born youth.
It will be interesting to see how this diversity translates into political choices at a time of new domestic and international developments and challenges. while millennials – generally defined as voters born after 1980 – increasingly focus on education, economic opportunity and healthcare among other priorities, the older Americans are more politically active in terms of voters turnout.
The Pew has done an analysis of changes in the nation’s eligible voting population – U.S. citizens ages 18 and older, which, according to the research institution, offers a preview of profound U.S. demographic shifts that are projected to continue for decades to come.
It says while the nation’s 156 million non-Hispanic white eligible voters in 2016 far outnumber the 70 million eligible voters that are racial or ethnic minorities, their growth lags that of minority groups. As a result, the non-Hispanic white share of the electorate has fallen from 71% in 2012 to 69%.
Statistics indicate there are 10.7 million more eligible voters today than there were in 2012. More than two-thirds of net growth in the U.S. electorate during this time has come from racial and ethnic minorities.
The research finds that Hispanics, blacks, Asians and other minorities had a net increase of 7.5 million eligible voters, compared with a net increase of 3.2 million among non-Hispanic white eligible voters.
Figures show the growth among non-Hispanic white eligible voters has been slower than among racial or ethnic minorities in large part because they are overrepresented in deaths due to an aging population. Non-Hispanic whites make up 69% of U.S. eligible voters, but accounted for 76% of all eligible voters who died (6.6 million of 8.7 million) between 2012 and 2016.
The analysis reveals that another reason growth has lagged among non-Hispanic white eligible voters is that they’re underrepresented among young people born in the U.S. who turn 18 – the group most responsible for the nation’s growth in eligible voters. Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 57% of the 16 million new eligible voters who turned 18 between 2012 and 2016. By comparison, racial ethnic minorities – who make up 31% of the electorate – accounted for 43% of new eligible voters born in the U.S. who turned 18.
It also finds that unlike other groups, most growth in the Asian electorate has come from naturalizations – immigrants becoming U.S. citizens. Since 2012, 60% of new Asian eligible voters have gained the right to vote by this means. By comparison, 26% of new Hispanic eligible voters came from naturalizations during this time.
“While the U.S. electorate is growing more diverse, there’s a caveat when it comes to the impact of these changes: the relatively low voter turnout rates among Hispanics and Asians,” according to the trends cited by the research institution
For example in the 2012 presidential election, 64% of non-Hispanic white eligible voters cast ballots, as did 67% of black eligible voters. By comparison, the voter turnout rate was 48% among Hispanics and 47% among Asians.
