After a series of intense civil-military consultations Pakistan has launched a new military operation n southern Punjab, the most prosperous province whose capital Lahore was the scene of a deadly March 27 Easter Sunday attack that killed 72 citizens including Christians and Muslims.
The new operation times with ongoing Zarb-e-Azb military operation against militants of “all hues” in North Waziristan and some other parts of tribal areas bordering Afghanistan that had been under microscopic focus during the 9/11-triggered Afghan war.
According to US and Pakistani officials, the operation in the tribal areas Taliban stronghold has eliminated a range of militants including the Pakistani Taliban, the Haqqani network operatives, Central Asia, Arab and Chinese militants.
Some key leaders Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – which has been involved in a fierce insurgency against the Pakistani state since 2007 – like Mullah Fazlullah and Omar Khalid Khorasan, head of the Jamat ul Ahrar, which claimed responsibility for the Easter bombing — have taken refuge in Afghanistan, complicating Pakistan’s fight against terror.
The Zarb-e-Azb operation, which gained after Afghan and Central Asian militants killed more than 140 schoolchildren and staff in a December 16, 2014 attack in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Before the Zarb-e-Azb operation Islamabad faced US-led international calls for a decisive action as militants hiding in the area abetted the Afghan Taliban insurgency.
Now, the operation in southern Punjab is no less a high-stakes step, as the area has long been a hotbed of banned sectarian outfits like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi that have exploited governance loopholes to continue their targeted killing of citizens belonging to the Shiite community.
The democratic government will have to convert the challenge that the Punjab operation poses into an opportunity to take the counterterrorism fight to the logical conclusion. Curbing, containing and defeating extremism and militancy in Punjab will be vital to Pakistan’s struggle to reclaim its soul after years of insurgencies and brutal bombings that have killed more than 60,000 lives.
In the overall national context, the ongoing military operations should be considered as one coordinated push that defeats the parochial forces bent upon destabilizing Pakistan, weakening the state and subjugating the society to militant and literalist interpretation of Islam.
Politically, Lahore is power seat of ruling Sharif family, headed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. His brother Shahbaz Sharif is the chief minister of the province with the largest number of representation in the lower house of the Parliament called the National Assembly.
Secondly, the Sharif and his PML(N) party have traditionally drawn support from a large right-leaning base in Punjab, which has more than half of the country’s around 200 million population. The Sharifs have been accused of not moving aggressively against militant outfits. Many analysts believe the Sharifs fear a backlash in the form of retaliatory bombings by militant groups.
It is in this background that Army Chief General Raheel Sharif,(no relation with the Sharif politicians) and top aides of PM Sharif had a number of meetings before the formal announcement on the launch of the operation on Wednesday.
A military spokesman told the media that the operation involves personnel of both civilian and military law enforcement agencies, including Rangers, police and Counter-Terrorism Department.
“These terrorists flee from different parts of the country as a result of successful operations Zarb-e-Azb and took refuge in remote areas of Rohjan, Kache in district Rahim Yaar Khan,” a statement by the Inter Services Public Relations said.
But military action will be just one piece of the puzzle.
The government and the army will have pursue a wide-ranging agenda to address extremism that has been afflicting the key South Asian country and has claimed more than 60,000 lives, according to officials.
The political government has faced a volley of criticism from both the military and the media for a lack of progress on implementation of National Action Plan, agreed by all political parties after the Peshawar Army Public School attack on December 16, 2014.
One of the critical factors would be the involvement of the people who can offer a strong narrative of peaceful coexistence and pluralism that defeats the parochial narrative of the militants, who see and define Islam in a literalist fashion.
The success of Zarb-e-Azb campaign, and before that Swat counterterrorism operation shows that Pakistan has the ability to flush out militants and contain insurgencies. But these success will prove to be short-term if not backed up by economic, political and educational reforms that give people economic hope.
But at this stage, when Pakistan has been able to turn around the situation in the largest port city of Karachi, has subdued the Balochistan insurgency, gained control over much of the tribal areas, the operation in southern Punjab must be comprehensive.
The offensive must be accompanied by a vigorous and transparent implementation of the NAP goals.
In order for Pakistan to counter militancy and extremism in the long-term, Islamabad must focus on reform of the Madrassa education system and try to mainstream it as soon as possible. Several studies since 9/11 have shown that the Madrassas deny students the ability to think critically and be prepared as professionals.
Secondly, the government must go for a political narrative offensive that rejects forces of hate and violence and replace it with emphasis on moderation and peaceful coexistence between various sects of Islam as well as between various faith communities.
Thirdly, the political and military leadership will have to work in unison to get rid of the militants operating on Pakistan’s soil.
Fourthly, Pakistan and Afghanistan should collaborate more aggressively to deny space to violent groups that seek refuge in the two countries and across the porous Afghan border.
Fifthly, the US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan should ratchet up their quadrilateral efforts to realize reconciliation in Afghanistan and help the landlocked country achieve a modicum of stability in accordance with the constitution that respects rights of women and all segments of population.
At the broader international level, the United States, EU and China should commit to a greater economic partnership with Pakistan and Afghanistan so that the young people vulnerable to the Taliban propaganda get employment opportunities.
In Pakistan’s case, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and US support have raised hopes that the country would be able sustain a higher economic growth rate and make amends for the lost years. A string of infrastructure and energy projects under CPEC will provide jobs to young and skilled people right from the southwestern province of Balochistan right up to the North. The development will hold out promise for economic opportunity to the marginalized and vulnerable which may act as antidote to extremist mindset.
But Afghanistan, which is also facing ISIS threat at this crucial transition stage, is yet to see pledges of sustained economic support in the years ahead.
Equally important will be improvement in the geopolitical scenario. Any ratcheting up of tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan – with two-way cross-border being the major point of tensions- and escalation of discords between Pakistan and India – revolving mainly around the Kashmir dispute – also provide a fodder for militancy in the region.
