Recently an international tribunal in The Hague ruled that China has no legal rights to exclusive claim of resources within the “9-dashed line” – a U-shaped line in the South China Sea – which extends hundreds of miles to the south and east of China’s island province of Hainan and covers some 90% of the disputed waters of South and East China Sea.
However, Chinese President Xi Jinping rejected the ruling because the decision has long term implications for China, since the region inside the 9-dashed line sees almost $5 trillion worth of trade every year.
Territorial disputes over a handful of islands of the East and South China Sea have already hit relations between China and countries like Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei in recent years.
The tensions are also likely to be on display at Laos, where ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) foreign ministers are meeting. Away from trade, the bloc has not been able to resolve security issues.
South China Sea is home to a wealth of natural resources, fisheries, trade routes, and military bases. The Ministry of Geological Resources and Mining of the People’s Republic of China estimates that the South China Sea contains 126 billion barrels of crude oil (compared to Kuwait which has some 93 billion barrels of crude oil reserves), although, other sources claim that the reserves of oil in the South China Sea may be about 7.9 billion barrels. All of this is at stake in the increasingly frequent diplomatic — and sometime low intensity military — impasse among the countries of the region.
Although the United States does not openly support any party in the region, it has significant political, security, and economic stakes over the issue of freedom of navigation in China’s 200 miles Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), in which, the US considers it has a right to operate its military vessels.
So the point of contention between the United States and China has been shaping due to Chinese insecurity about its territorial and maritime limits as well as due anxiety in Washington about the China’s growing military power and its ambitions in the region.
There are two scenarios that South China Sea analysts and experts on US-China relations see. According to those who believe in the power of economic and trade relations, it is inconceivable that the US and China could resort to any military standoff anytime soon when a long list of challenges is already stagnating world economies.
On the other end of the spectrum, experts fear there could be an incident which could potentially prompt US and China to unleash their fire power in the South China Sea against each other.
Since the United Nation Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS) Treaty, which defines the rights of nations how they can use the oceans of the world came into force in 1994, it does not prevent any country from conducting military exercises in China’s 200 mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) even without the permission of the coastal state.
Therefore, the United States believes it could decide to carry out some military activity in the Chinese EEZ. However, any miscalculation during these activities from either side could provoke an armed response from China, because Beijing believes that any such activity without the coastal states’ consent violates Chinese law and international law. In April 2001, when China’s J-8II interceptor fighter jet engaged the American EP-3E ARIES II signal intelligence and reconnaissance aircraft, which was operating about 100 miles away from the Chinese military installation in the Paracel Island, accidentally collided near the Hainan Island which was around 70 miles away from the collision point, and resulted in an international dispute between Washington and Beijing.
Analysts who fear exacerbation of tensions, say similar incidents can occur again, especially, after the fact that China has a huge presence of Chinese submarines. Any collisions or provocation could prompt US to dispatch armed vessels. There could be several scenarios. Because of its Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, the US can be pulled into the conflict between Philippines and China. Although, China and Vietnam can also get into a conflict over seismic surveys and oil and gas drilling and the US can be drawn into the conflict, it is the dispute between China and Philippines that is more likely and has a potential to transform into another super-power conflict which could threaten the world peace.
China believes that the wealth and control of the region inside of 9-dashed line are the main issues for it. At the same time, it appears frustrated about what it alleges is the role of the West against its growing influence in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In 1959, much before the maritime disputes escalated, China established an office which was responsible for looking over and manage the developments in Xisha, Nansha and Zongsha Islands.
Beijing says that even until 1970 – there had not been a single legal document in the Philippines expressing any claim of Nansha Island. Neither any international treaty, which defines Philippine’s territorial brinks, indicate that the South China Sea Islands are part of Philippines. However, in 1968, when the report – issued by the Committee for Coordination of Joint Prospecting for Mineral Resources in Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP) — revealed that the east and south of Nansha Island contains huge reservoirs of oil and gas, the dispute in South China Sea came to the spotlight.
In Beijing’s perspective, with the changing geopolitical realities and formation of new alliances led by the West, China’s paranoia about defending its territorial sovereignty has aggravated. Beijing thinks if such an alliance is ever materialized, it may have a potential to impose a naval blockade on the narrow 1.5 nautical miles Malacca strait and strangle China economically. China believes that it must preempt the situation and form its own alliances to counter the possible hostility against China.
In the US perspective, the international maritime routes and security are collective concerns for all, and therefore it wants peace be maintained in the region.
However, the US and China both understand the importance of their relationship and the need to work together to fight rampant issues like nuclear proliferation, terrorism and smuggling of weapons of mass destruction. Both the US and China have major stakes in preventing any escalation of conflict in the South China Sea.
In view of close economic and trade relations between the United States and China, and the importance of security and peace in South China Sea, the best course appears to be one where Washington and China work together along with Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei to agree upon new terms for use of the disputed waters. On the other hand, China should not insist on exploiting its maritime hegemony inside the 9-dashed line and allow the coastal countries to use their rights in the waters.
In order to prevent future water conflicts, the United Nations’ member countries should reformulate the Law of the Sea all over and redefine the rights and responsibilities to the nations with respect to their use of oceans, establishing guidelines for businesses, the environment, engagement in the military activities and the management of marine natural resources, especially for the East and South China Sea.
