President Donald J. Trump, a billionaire real estate tycoon with a lifelong reputation for negotiating tough deals and making lots of money, left no doubt in the minds of those who heard his inaugural address on January 20 about his policies.
Speaking bluntly and forcefully to a crowd on Washington’s Mall, and to audiences on television and social media around the world, he said part of his “America First” agenda in foreign affairs will be to deal with the problem of international terrorism.
“We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones,” he said, “and unite the civilized world against Radical Islamic Terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the Earth.”
In the days following the inauguration, officials of the new administration worked to complete the transition in the White House, and there were few details offered as to how the US would confront ISIS in the Trump era. Reporters and editorial writers noted the strong and unequivocal language, wondering if US policies would become more confrontational – or if it was simply an instance of Donald Trump’s style, favoring boldness and straightforward talk over the more polite and nuanced language of diplomacy.
As the new administration takes the reins of power, and as Donald Trump speaks as President rather than as an unorthodox newcomer to high-stakes politics, it seems likely that some action against ISIS will be forthcoming. What that will be, and when, remain to be seen. It’s a good time, in any case, to take stock of what we know about ISIS – its strengths and weaknesses, its impact on the Middle East, and its place in the history of international terrorism.
The Origins of ISIS
Some historians favor a long view, citing the advantages of perspective in gaining an understanding of current conditions. In short: the group known as ISIS – the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham – seeks to restore the Caliphate, a worldwide Muslim community based on the Caliphate formed in 632 after the death of the Prophet Muhammad.
The intent almost 1,400 years ago was to form an Islamic empire that transcended all boundaries between tribes and nations. In the centuries that followed the Islamic faith grew rapidly, rivalling Christianity and surpassing other faiths to become the world’s second-largest, and the fastest-growing religion in the world. These two Abrahamic faiths are known for different scriptures and ceremonies, prompting competition and warfare that has changed the face of human history. It is just as true that the vast majority of Christians and Moslems have lived peacefully together, observing doctrines and tenets that stress humility, charity, and tolerance.
During the period of the Ottoman Empire from 1400 to the end of World War One, the tenets of Islam provided muscle and bone for Islamic culture, political life, and military control through the Balkans, West Asia, parts of North Africa, and the Middle East. A gradual weakening of the empire’s control coupled with rising nationalism and the costs of war brought an end to Ottoman control over its territory – divided today among almost 40 separate countries – and a formal end to the Caliphate in 1924 by decree of the new government of Turkey.
Partly in response to the Ottoman demise the Muslim Brotherhood was formed in Egypt a few years later, seeking to restore transnational influence through political activism and charity work in the Middle East. Its leaders sought to make Islam transcendent over politics, but political leaders saw the group as a threat and moved to stifle its influence. Al Qaida was formed in 1988 as an outgrowth of this activity, due in part to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It attracted numerous recruits and drew a sustained American response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Al Qaida was all but wiped out in the long war that followed, Osama bin Laden was killed by US Special Forces in 2011, and the groundwork was laid for the creation of its successor, Al Qaida in Iraq (AQI) – soon to be known as ISIS.
ISIS Today
The disastrous war in Iraq added an existential threat to that country in a region already split by sectarian and political rivalries. Disparate terrorist groups including the remnants of Al Qaida, and Sunnis once aligned with Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party, attacked Shia religious sites in an effort to destabilize the country and draw the US into a sectarian civil war. US forces killed the leader of AQI, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and Sunni tribal leaders – sick of warfare – joined forces with the new Iraqi government. As American soldiers withdrew from Iraq, ISIS was formed under the leadership of a self-proclaimed Caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
The name of al-Baghdadi’s group – the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham – is a reference to a wider eastern Mediterranean region that includes most of Iraq and northern Syria. This region, known in antiquity as Mesopotamia, pre-dates the modern nations of in the Middle East, and for centuries was included as part of the Ottoman Empire. Baghdadi and his supporters call for reunification of the region as the center of a worldwide Caliphate – with ambitions to control territory beyond the Middle East.
What factors led to sudden rise of ISIS
But the sudden rise of ISIS has been made possible partly by an abrupt end to the Iraq war launched in 2003, Nouri al Maliki’s sectarian-driven discriminatory policies that gave a narrative of victimhood to a large Sunni population, Bashar al Assad’s massacres of civilian protesters wanting a regime change and democracy, Iran-Saudi Arabian rivarly, and the US and Western countries’s not detecting early signs of the rise of the militant group. The ISIS has exploited gaps in governance in both Iraq and Syria and took advantage of grievancces of marginalized populations and with its narrative lured vulnerable Arab and even Western youth into its militant snare.
As for the sectarian angle, while Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have not been publicly supportive of many militant groups, their funding for Madrasas has clearly advanced militant thinking with deadly repercussions. Iranian state, on the other hands, openly backs Hezbollah and other groups and has recently used even Afghan refugees to fight for it in Syria, and has unleashed several militias in Iraq with killing missions of genocidal proportions. The situation has helped militant organizations like ISIS to recruit people, particularly in conflict-hit areas. As a result of policies pursued by these oil-rich countries, the entire Muslim world is suffering from implications of terrorism.
Today, counter-terrorism agencies in the US and elsewhere have identified ISIS exploiting insurgencies in Egypt, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Bangladesh to varying degrees. Thousands of recruits, drawn by highly professional propaganda campaigns, have responded to ISIS by traveling to the region from more than 80 countries. Attacks by ISIS in the US and Europe have killed dozens of people, and such attacks are believed to be an enticement to draw Western powers into an all-out war. A war against the West has long been a goal of Al Qaida and similar groups who believe it would result in an apocalyptic battle ending in victory for militant Islam.
Western countries and allies led by the US have countered the spread of ISIS with measured attacks and efforts to regain lost ground. So far those efforts have been successful, with ISIS fighters killed by both Iraqi ground troops and US air strikes. Considerable territory has been reclaimed, and ISIS is in retreat – but in both Syria and Iraq, they have taken a huge toll on civilian life, historical sites deemed non-religious, and vital infrastructure.
Most alarming is the continuing danger to a dam north of the Iraqi city of Mosul on the Tigris River, one of the largest of its kind in the Middle East – and one that is already in danger of collapse because of weakening rock formations. For a time it was under the control of ISIS forces who threatened to blow it up, an action that would cause a catastrophic flood – putting all cities along the Tigris, and much of Baghdad to the south, under water. US and Iraqi forces have re-taken the dam, but damage caused by ISIS and the continuing geological deterioration at its base are a cause of great concern.
What’s Next?
During the last two years of President Obama’s term in office, policy regarding ISIS has been to use military means to degrade its present and future ability to carry out terrorist attacks in Iraq and Syria, and to use protective measures against such attacks in America. This policy – to “degrade and ultimately defeat” ISIS by taking deliberate and careful steps – has been praised by supporters who see it as a way to minimize human casualties in the Middle East while protecting Americans at home. The US has led operations throughout the region, and has deployed diplomats worldwide to combat propaganda messages and reassure allies.
Opponents of the Obama policy – and most certainly, the new President – say incremental measures are half-steps, inadequate by definition, and self-defeating in the face of continued ISIS attacks. This view has won support over the last two years from those who see boastful ISIS videos, who hear reports of bomb attacks or assassination plots in American and European cities, and who see a high price to be paid for a policy based on degradation of the enemy’s ability and its ultimate defeat. Such voices call for less patience, a more decisive action plan, and the end of ISIS as quickly as possible.
It is this latter view that was expressed during the inauguration speech by President Trump, the commitment to eradicate ISIS “completely from the face of the earth.” He didn’t say how, or when, or by what means it would happen – but his intentions were made clear on the podium that day, as he repeated a campaign pledge made often while running for President. His words left no doubt. His actions remain to be seen.
