With South Asia reeling from India-Pakistan tensions and Afghanistan mired in uncertainty, the United States plans to engage with the region as the Trump Administration seeks to define its policy toward the region.
Reports in The Hindustan Times and Pakistani Dawn newspaper suggest that U.S. National Security Adviser H R McMaster may be heading to the region in the upcoming days, marking Donald Trump White House’s highest level engagement with the regional capitals.
In recent months, India-Pakistan tensions have exacerbated to a dangerous level with New Delhi facing mass protests against its rule in the disputed Kashmir territory under its control. The political temperature has risen despite the two countries sustaining high economic growth rates.
This week Islamabad said an Indian spy, Kulbushan Jadhav, captured last year in Balochistan, would be hanged. New Delhi has warned Islamabad against the move.
Kashmir has been on a hot button issue as India has used brutal force against civilian protesters, raising regional tensions along the Line of Control that divides Kashmir between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Last weekend, Indian forces killed eight Kashmiri demonstrators protesting Indian rule on the day of a bye-election, which saw the lowest turnout in 30 years.
Pakistan has accused India of perpetrating state terrorism on Kashmiris. India has refused human rights groups access to the Kashmir valley, which recently has seen worst violence in several years.
For its part, the United States has expressed its concern over the South Asian tense situation and U.S. Ambassador to United Nations Nikki Haley last week indicated Washington’s interest in being part of efforts toward peaceful relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
New Delhi has rejected the United States’ peace offer while Pakistan is amenable to third party mediation. On Tuesday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said Washington has a significant role to play in pushing a resolution to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute – a UN-recognized issue.
India’s ultrantionalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has adopted an aggressive approach to dealing with uprising in Kashmir, sees no role for any foreign power. India blames Pakistan for stoking protests in Kashmir and sponsoring terrorism against it. Pakistan has often accused India of orchestrating terrorist attacks and backing a low-intensity insurgency in Balcohistan from across the Afghan border.
In the same breath, New Delhi has sought U.S. and UN intervention to stop execution of Jadhav.
As for Afghanistan, McMaster’s expected visit appears to be an effort to have a first-hand assessment of the situation in the country, wracked by a deadly mix of Taliban insurgency and ISIS militancy. Kabul’s political infighting and inability to govern large swathes of the country has further deteriorated the situation.
McMaster, a widely respected general with Afghanistan experience, will have Lisa Curtis, a longtime South Asia expert at The Heritage Foundation. Recently, a brief by Curtis and former Pakistani ambassador to the United States Hussain Haqqani, now working as head of South Asia at the Hudson Institute, suggested a tough line on Pakistan on eliciting its counterterrorism cooperation.
The Trump Administration has not yet outlined its Afghan policy but a number of regional countries including China and Russia have stepped up efforts to stabilize the landlocked country.
Russia is hosting a conference on Afghanistan on April 14. Washington has refused Moscow’s invitation to attend to the conference on the ground that it did not have prior consultation with the United States and the moot’s objective are not clear.
Meanwhile, U.S.-Russia relations have grown more tense after an American strike against a Syrian military airfield under the control of Bashar al Assad’s regime, after reports of Damascus’ launching a chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilians.
In the historical context, the US engagement with the two larges South Asian countries might look a familiar pattern. During the last two decades, Washington has played an incredibly important role in retrieving Pakistan and Indian from the edge of conflict with the possibility of a full-blown war – from 2001-02 standoff to 2008 Mumbai attacks.
The US-Pakistan-India triangle has been in play despite the fact that the Barack Obama Administration de-hyphenated US relations with India and Pakistan in a number of areas including the civilian nuclear cooperation and defense, as it focused on Asia pivot in view of a rising China.
But the best the United States has been able to achieve is conflict management or containment of tensions. The resolution to disputes and revival of peace process remain elusive – indicating perhaps limits of Washington’s power and influence over the two indispensable countries of large populations, strategic locations and skilled human resource.
Another question facing the United States is the nature of the relationship with the two countries. Will it remain transactional or evolve into enduring partnership? Last month Walter Anderson, a know expert on South Asia, who lead SAIS at Johns Hopkins University, foresaw a transactional relationship with regional countries.
Then there is the question of Afghanistan, where both Pakistan and India compete for influence. How will the US factor this into its policy in view of Pakistan’s importance to Afghan security and stability.
The overarching U.S. goal in the region is to contain the terrorist threat and defeat any terror groups operating in the region. While vast ungoverned space of Afghanistan are home to al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS militants, Pakistan-India conflict over Kashmir also remains a lightning rod for militancy in the region. Additionally, both Pakistan and Afghanistan accuse each other of allowing militant groups like the Pakistani Taliban and the Haqqanis to operate from their soils. The U.S. still has around 9000 troops deployed in Afghanistan, supporting the Afghans in their fight against Taliban insurgency and ISIS expansion.
In the last few years, Pakistan has had significant success in the fight against terror with back to back large scale military operations in the federally administered tribal areas, long a hotbed of terrorists, many of whom crossed over the Afghan border when the United States invaded the landlocked country in the immediate aftermath of 911-terrorist attacks. Yet, measures to tamp down extremist thinking have been lacking.
Meanwhile, an Afghan reconciliation process has nowhere in sight. Major regional countries including China and Russia, which have lately shown much greater interest in Afghanistan’s future, back the idea of Kabul having a reconciliation arrangement with the Taliban. Iran is also said to be backing a Taliban integration as it wants to fight off ISIS terror in the region.
The Trump Administration has high stakes in achieving a modicum of stability in Afghanistan in order for it to be able to carve out future engagement with the country. On the other hand, the United States must also see to it that Pakistan-India tensions do not spiral out of control and push back years of counterterrorism effort in the region.
